A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
